Loading ...The 2007 inflation in Romania stood at 6.57 percent, based on the data released on Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS), that is a level both much over the inflation target expected by the National Bank of Romania (BNR) for 2007, set at 4 percent, plus/minus one percentage point, and the latest forecast revised on inflation released by the central bank, which indicated an inflation level of 5.7 percent, late in 2007.
Consumer prices advanced in December last year by 0.64 percent, compared to the previous month, with the highest raises being at food products (0.9 percent) and in relation to the fees charged for services (0.7 percent).
Analysts are not very optimistic related to this year inflation target being reached either.
Analysts are not very optimistic related to this year inflation target being reached either.
In addition, analysts believe that the depreciation of the Romanian national currency leu (RON), the prices at foodstuffs expected to continue to advance, the pressures on wage growth, expected during an elective year, are factors to jeopardize the inflation target of 3.8 percent undertaken by the National Bank for this year, without serious support coming from fiscal and wage policies.
“The RON depreciation will reflect in services being more expensive and in an increase in the price of the foodstuffs as an outcome of last summer drought”, according to those declared by Nicolaie Alexandru – Chidesciuc, senior economist of ING Bank Romania, quoted by The Money Channel.
The head economist of BCR, as well, Lucian Anghel, believes that RON depreciation continue to be a danger for inflation during the first part of this year. Anghel believes that the BNR scenario related to inflation in 2008 “is an optimistic one, but not an impossible one, considering a normal agricultural year”.
INS also informed about the level of the net nominal average wage in November 2007, which was RON 1,121, up by RON 37 (3.4 percent) compared to the previous month, and by 23.5 percent more than during the corresponding time period of the previous year.
The index on real wage gains advanced, over the mentioned time period, by 15.8 percent compared to the same time period of the previous year. In November 2007, the gross nominal average wage amounted to RON 1,522, up by 3.5 percent as against the previous month. Raises by over 12 percent were also registered in insurance and pension house activities.
The lowest raises, between 2 to 4 percent, were registered in education, road transports, road means industry, textile production, trade, tour operators, agriculture, etc. Industrial production also advanced by 5.6 percent over the first 11 months of 2007, compared to the similar time period of the previous year, based on the same data from the institute.
Following that edible oil and beans were the food products whose prices advanced the most, by 44.1 percent, and by 32.95 percent respectively, in December 2007, compared to the same month of 2006, based on the data released on Friday by INS, expectations point out that rent, bread and basic food products (milk, meat, eggs, etc.) will have higher prices, at the level announced by the representatives of the respective industries, according to the Saturday issue of the daily newspaper “Adevarul”.
The average advance of consumer prices in Romania will accelerate to 5.7 percent this year, compared to 4.8 percent in 2007; inflation will reach, only in 2009, a lower pace, according to the estimations released by bank Austria Creditanstalt.
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