Loading ...Romania will keep on attracting strategic investors, says former Romanian Commercial Bank CEO Nicolae Danila in an interview with the Business Standard daily on January 14.
He stresses that the oil price is a key element to the world economic development. Danila argues that it is highly important for Romania to get through the first half of 2008 without any shocks, explaining that it is the first half-year that posts relatively higher risks compared to the second half. The inflation will drop gradually after mid-year, after peaking at over 7 percent in the first months, Danila predicts, also seeing a relative dampening of the effects of the international financial turbulence by year-end.
The former chief executive of the largest Romanian bank says the gross domestic product will grow some 6 percent, which is significantly above the European average of 2.1 percent forecast in the euro zone this year. This will set the best conditions for a success of the Romanian catching up strategy.
He predicts industry will have a more important contribution to the Romanian economic growth compared to 2007, with the car-making sector seen likely to be bolstered this year.
Inflation will stay a major challenge to the National Bank of Romania, Danila says, adding the 3.8 percent inflation target (plus or minus one percent) will be extremely difficult to attain, but not impossible, this year. It needs a money policy that should be more restrictive than at present, a moderate impact of external shocks and a normal farming year. The money policy should be better coordinated with the fiscal- and salary policy, even though Romania faces elections this year, he adds.
Danila says it is also possible to see an important volatility of the foreign exchange rate this year, which might have an influence on the inflation rate.
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