Loading ...Financial analysts estimate that agriculture contributes 1.5-2 percent to the growth in GDP this year, with the entire rise in GDP standing at 6-7 percent.
Last year, Romania’s economy grew six percent, compared with 2006, due to a strong economic advance in services and constructions, which made up for the strong decline in agriculture. Services contributed 3.5 percent to the 6 percent economic growth last year, constructions 2.4 percent, industry 1.2 percent only, and net taxes per product 0.2 percent. But agriculture made the economic growth in 2007 slow down 1.3 percent.
The drought last year led to negative records in agriculture, with the lowest crop in the past 50 years. But this year, the good weather and the rise in farming land have almost doubled production.
Chief economist of Romania’s Commercial Bank (BCR) Lucian Anghel said that this year the grain exports of Romania will rise, and which is maybe even more important, the imports of such products will go down. He believes GDP could report significant growth starting in Q1, due to farming, first. Agriculture and constructions will be the stars this year, Anghel also said.
But other experts are more skeptical regarding growth in agriculture this year. Skepticism means only that the results would not be so good, but positive, and not negative results are expected nevertheless.
Vice-President of the Association of Financial Analysts of Romania Dragos Cabat believes that agriculture could have a 1.5 percent contribution to GDP’s growth this year, which it puts at six percent. "We don’t know exactly the impact of floods on agriculture. One month ago, before the floods, I would have said farming will contribute 1.5-2 percent in the rise in GDP, but things are different now, and no clear data are available as yet about the impact of flooding," Cabat also said.
Last year, the vegetal production reported falls in almost all crops, compared with 2006. According to the Ministry of Agriculture over 65 percent of the farmland was hit by bad weather conditions, damage stood between 30 and 100 percent.
Average productions per ha were lower for most crops, namely wheat, barley, two-row barley, oats, corn, sunflower, soybean, rapeseed, sugarbeet, potatoes, tomatoes, cabbage, carrots, onion, water melons, the Business Standard writes.
Data from the National Statistics Institute (INS) read that in 2007, compared with 2007, the production of grain, wheat and corn in particular, registered a 49.9 percent fall, and the average production per ha also went down. The corn production declined 57.2 percent, and the wheat production 43.6 percent. The average corn production more than halved (57.5 percent), and that of wheat declined 41.6 percent. Last year, the agricultural production, badly hit by drought, had a negative impact also on the other economic indicators. The worst impact was on inflation, with food prices increasing a lot. The production this year, much better than that of last year has also led to a slow down in inflation. Prices are expected to go down this August and September, financial analysts believe.
Loading ...
Comentează acest articol