Loading ...The probability of a liquidity crisis in the Romanian banking system, is almost zero, said on Friday Claudiu Cercel, deputy general manager of BRD, present at the conference called 'France-Romania together in Europe against the crisis.' The countries of Eastern Europe witness a harmful media avalanche for the banking system, said Claudiu Cercel. Among the arguments BRD's deputy general manager mentioned, is the fact that the depreciation of the leu currency (Romania's national currency) by 20 percent is similar to that of foreign currencies in neighbouring countries, for instant the Czech Koruna (23 percent).
The problem foreseen by Claudiu Cercel is that for the leu currency, the maximal level of appreciation was much higher, respectively 38 percent compared to the Czech koruna (23 percent) and the Polish Zloty (48 percent). Cercel also said that not always the country rating is correct and pointed to the situation emreged following some analyses, in which the country risk is the same, as in Hungary and Russia.(BBB).
A problem for Romania is that the management of liquidities is much more complex and that there is a certain volatility of flows with the state treasury. Other argument against the pessimistic provisions by some analysts is that in Romania, two thirds of the foreign debt is on the medium term and that it is hard to believe that foreign banks would suddenly ask the debt in one piece.
'Romania needs some 10-12 billion euros in order to cope with the obligations related to the foreign debt, which compared to the GDP and the reserves of the National Bank of Romania, is not too much. Also proved was the country's capacity of financing the current account, which shrank from 14 to 12 percent and it is estimated that in 2009 it would reach 9.5 percent,' said the BRD manager.
Neither the diminution of exports is so serious, according to Claudiu Cercel, given that the share of export in Romania's GDP is of 30 percent, compared to 40 percent in Poland and 80 percent in Hungary. Referring to the prospective impact of loans in foreign currencies, Claudiu Cercel said that 70 percent of the loans are related to EURIBOR and the exchange rate went down at least twice than EURIBOR.
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