Financiarul

The national leu currency stands chances of repeating the tradition seen in the last years and to strengthen against the euro in summer, the more so since now there are no longer pressures for forex purchasing by the importers or the speculative players, the Ziarul financiar daily quotes dealers and analysts as saying.

However, the leu’s potential for strengthening is rather limited, with the most optimistic predictions anticipating it will trade at 4.1 lei to the euro.

Any drop of the single currency towards 4 lei would be merely accidental, the experts say.

‘It’s true that traditionally in summer there are no massive forex purchases, which makes me believe we are not going to see the euro trading higher than 4.25 lei, by the end of August at least.

However, unlike the previous years, now there are few people in the market who bet on a sustainable appreciation of the leu.

Thus, as the euro might get close to 4.1 lei, I doubt anybody would aggressively sell foreign exchange’, the daily quotes Dragos Balaci, RBS Bank Romania chief dealer, as saying.

It remains to be seen whether the remittances by the Romanians based outside the country – which was the main engine for the leu’s strengthening in the prior summers – may reach significant volumes, as most European economies are trying to cope with their own problems, the daily comments.

The fact that the leu’s exchange rate has kept at high levels since the beginning of the year has already contributed to a fast correction of the trade deficit.

The Romanian trade gap was down 60 percent in the first four months of the year from the same period a year ago, as imports fell faster than exports Jan. to April.

The correction of the foreign deficits also took place amid a sudden slowdown of the economy: the GDP in the first quarter was by 6.2 percent smaller than in the same period in 2008, show revised figures made public by the National Institute of Statistics on Tuesday.

Original estimates pointed to a 6.4 percent contraction of the GDP, the Ziarul financ iar reports.